On May 29th, we posted our very early betting guide for MSU's Week 1 match-up vs. FAU. At the time of the original post, I had a bet locked for MSU -11. It's currently at MSU -11.5.
In the past few months, more intel is available to provide a more accurate picture of what to expect. I stand by the pick that MSU should cover -11.5.
Betting
Money Line MSU -500 / FAU +380
Spread MSU -11.5 (using the o/u MSU is projected to win 29-17.5)
Total Points o/u 46.5
Meet the Owls
This is not the same Owl team led by Lane Kiffen, who posted a few 11-win seasons only a few years ago. FAU has moved from Conference USA to the American Conference and is now helmed by Tom Herman, who is back for his 3rd season.
The Offseason Summary - Portal In and Out
Out - The Owls lost many offensive players through the portal: their top two QBs, top two running backs, top three wideouts, and four starting offensive linemen.
In - They hit the portal hard to successfully backfill, landing a starting QB, RB, and multiple WRs. Enough so that the FAU staff feels they have something. In many ways, it doesn't seem that different from MSU, albeit MSU likely has more talent and depth across the board.
ESPN’s SP+ (Metric for Returning Production, Recent Recruiting, and Recent History)
The Owls are 115 out of 133 in the country. Ranked 124 on Offense and 78 on Defense.
Returning Production: 43% overall. 36% Offense (122/133) and 53% Defense (105/133).
Key Stats:
FAU Offense:
The Owls finished last in time of possession in the conference last year, coming in at 27 minutes per game. With a new QB (albeit a decent one), and new players starting or transferring in, this could still be their weakness.
FAU scored more than 20 points just five times last season. Their projected points is 17.5. I'd like to see us keep them under 20.
MSU should have a size and skill advantage, allowing us to control the tempo. With that being the case, I only see FAU hanging (or covering) if we have turnovers.
FAU Defense:
Allowed almost 400 yards per game. The secondary should be the weakness again; I want to see MSU take advantage of RPO and play action early. And grind them down with the run to close the game.
Allowed 25.5 PPG, sixth in the conference. We are projected to get 29 points. I want us to clear 28, but could see FGs coming into play, keeping us in the 24-31 range.
FAU returns 8 starters on defense. And expect a bump up with this being year two under the staff.
FAU O vs MSU D
FAU QB vs MSU Defense:
Marshall transfer Cam Fancher was just named the starting QB against MSU. Fancher started the last two seasons at Marshall, providing experience. In 2023 Fancher completed 65% of his passes, for 2k+ yards, with 11 TDs and 11 INTs. His backup is Starks, who was the FAU's backup the last two seasons.
FAU RBs vs MSU Run D: Mobley is pegged to be the starter. 2023 was cut short by injury, but he did rush for 500 yards on 100 carries in 2022. Campbell transfers in from FSU. He made the most of limited PT at FSU last year and apparently had a strong spring game. Terrell is a shifty back with breakaway speed. If Terrell is their 3rd down RB with high-end speed, look for Hall and Matthews to be on the field. Meanwhile, the slower Haladay and Turner handle running-down situations against Mobley and Campbell.
FAU WR vs MSU Secondary: BJ Alexander returns, but has limited production. He is paired with transfer Marlyn Johnson, who played well over two seasons at Buffalo. And Milan Tucker, who transferred from Appalachian State. Both transfers are expected to be impact players on the field. The three should be a good test for MSU WRs. Getting exposed in this game wouldn't be a good look.
FAU TE vs MSU D: FAU returns Zeke Moore, who is coming off a strong freshman year and many expect a breakout season. Other TEs include Brantley (a blocker), and Sullivan (converted WR). Brown is a wildcard, a former transfer from Alabama. He physically would present the most significant threat.
It should be a telling sign on play calls based on which TEs are on the field. If the Owls go 11 personnel (1 RB and 1 TE), I expect a Nickle (5 DBs, 2 LBs) look with Hall (the most well-rounded LB) and Matthews (coverage specialist). Especially if Sullivan is playing. If we see TE's Brantley or Brown, expect our physical safety's and bigger LBs like Haladay or Turner to pair with Hall. It will be worth watching how we match guys up here.
FAU Interior OL vs MSU DT: FAU has an experienced Center returning with conference recognition. He is joined by a respected LG RS-Freshman and a RG Senior with experience last year. Week 1 will be a good test on our DTs.
FAU Tackles vs MSU Edge: FAU brings in a massive, but rarely used transfer from FSU. On the other end, they have another FSU transfer from a few years back, with experience at FAU. Facing a huge LT and experienced RT will be a good gauge for how our new Rush position.
MSU O vs FAU D (with some help from NCAA24 Game)
MSU Passing vs FAU Secondary
CB Daedae Hill is the top-ranked FAU player. He's posted back-to-back 37+ tackle seasons. He's ranked 86 in the game.
CB Jayden Williams is another top returner.
Kahzir “Buggs” Brown Transfers to FAU and apparently had a good Spring. They have a handful of players rated in the 70's.
Safety Dunnam is rated an 80, one of the highest-rated players on the roster.
IT'S IN THE GAME: Besides Hill, the entire starting FAU secondary has a speed between 87-89. Not sure how accurate that is, but it shows that any WRs with speed have a chance to get over the top or ditch their man in crossing routes. I'm looking at you Nick Marsh, Alante Brown, and Jaron Glover.
Thoughts: On paper, Hill makes for a good challenge for Foster. The question then becomes, how do our other WRs handle lesser CBs, and who takes advantage of a potential mismatch?
MSU Run Game vs FAU LBs
Jackson Ambush returns this season after a team-leading 89 total stops, with 6.5 for a loss, a sack, and an interception.
FAU has 4 Senior LBs rated between 75-80. Not sure how they will be used yet. But it is worth noting they all have speeds that are 83 or lower. So if that's accurate, I expect Carter and Lynch-Adams to fair well if they can bounce to the outside and find space.
MSU OL vs FAU D-Line:
DE: Chris Jones returns after starting 12 games last season. He will be on the opposite side of Marlon Bradley who they have high expectations for.
DT: FAU is likely rolling with transfers Prince James Boyd (Purdue) and Phillip Dunnam (Indiana).
IT'S IN THE GAME: In the game, FAU D-Line has 8 players between 70-75. So, there is no high-end talent, but there is not a significant drop down the depth chart. As noted above, this is a fair match-up for our new OL.
Thoughts: It will be interesting to see how MSU handles 2 capable edge rushers and DTs coming down from BigTen level.
Revised reasons why MSU Covers -11
We have significantly better players, top to bottom. ESPN SP+ confirms this. We have more production returning and through portal addition.
While Tom Herman is a good coach, I like our staff and scheme more. FAU will have to scout Oregon State to understand what we will do. But 90% of the players will be different.
It's at home, ushering in a new era. Fans will be excited, vibes will be high. Coach Smith will want to put on a show.
While both teams have new QBs, ours has experience in the system.
We have better RBs, and can control tempo and clock.
Even with FAU adding QB and WRs via portal, I like our chances of matching up with our DB additions in Martinez, Woods, Cavazos, and Hughes. In addition to returning CBs and Tutum/Spencer.
I expect some jitters and time to warm up in the first half. And I wouldn't be shocked to see us only up 7, especially if FAU receives the opening kick. In the second half, I expect our size, talent, and depth to be superior as we cruise to an 11-14-point victory.
Projections:
Comments