I've locked in MSU o4.5 Wins (-150) and MSU o5 Wins (+110) on 5/14/24, and an early MSU o5.5 Wins (+125) on 3/31/24.
You can still get MSU o4.5 Wins (-150) and MSU o5 Wins (+110), here's why I hammered it.
First, are you telling me that with all of the roster changes (in and out), we are only projected only .5 wins higher than we actually finished last year?
In 2023, MSU went 4-8. With no coach and no QB. We played the two teams that were in the championship. We choked a game vs. Rutgers.
Offensive Recap: We averaged 16 points per game (second to last in the Big10). We finished second to last in the Big10 for Yards/Game, last in Big10 Passing Yards, and in the bottom third for rushing yards (on a horrible 2.9 yards/carry). We had an inefficient 30% 3rd down conversion rate on offense and 1:1 TD/INT ratio.
This offseason, we upgraded the quarterback, RB, and TE positions. WR is a wash in terms of talent, but a better quarterback leads to better output. The OL is TBD. We also improved staff and the scheme.
Defensive Recap: Gave up the second most yards/game in the Big10. We had the second most passing yards allowed, third-worst completion percentage, and worst passer rating. We allowed the fourth most rushing yards and Yards/Carry. Lastly, we gave up the fourth most points/game.
This offseason, we upgraded significantly at LB and in the Secondary. DL might take a slight dip in terms of ceiling, but improved depth. With a better coaching staff and scheme, I expect the unit overall to take a step up.
Off this alone I like our chances of YoY improvement in the win column. That said, we need to look at the schedule:
Let's break it down and add context from projected win totals.
Warm Up: FAU, MD, Prarie View A&M, and BC
4-0 is possible. Away games at MD and BC make 3-1 most likely.
MD is projected at 7 wins, while BC is only 4.5. So more concerned about MD as an early road test.
Gauntlet: OSU, Oregon, Iowa, UM
I think it's 1-3 here best case. Iowa is projected at 7.5 wins. Ideally, we sneak by them.
I hate to say it, but our goal for Oregon and OSU is to keep it closer and without injury. Keep in mind we lost to Washington 41-7 last year, so a 35-21 game vs Oregon would be an improvement. We lost to OSU last year 38-3, and they called the dogs off at halftime, so 31-17 would be nice.
The UM game is tough. We got our ass kicked last year. But they lost 13 players to the draft and we have upgraded the roster and nearly every position. I think the gap is close enough to have a chance as an emotional win as an underdog. But not counting on it.
0-4 is the worst case, and sadly it's close to 50/50 that we go 1-3 or 0-4.
Close: IU, ILL, Pur, Rut
We will likely be battered following the tough four-game stretch above, and emotions could be a rollercoaster depending on the UM outcome.
For that reason, I think IU (projected 5.5 wins) the week after UM could be tricky. Calling it 50/50.
We follow that up with a road game against ILL (projected 5.5 wins). Also tricky.
4-0 is possible. Realistically thinking 3-1. Worst case. 2-2.
To summarize scenarios:
Best Case: 4-0 to start, 1-3 in the middle, 4-0 to close. That gets us to 9-3. That's green-tinted glasses.
Likely: 3-1 to start, 0-4 in the middle, 3-1 to close. That's 6-6. Realistic in my mind.
Worst Case: 2-2 to start, 0-4 in the middle, 2-2 to close. Landing us at 4-8, losing all bets. But I can't imagine them splitting the front and back end of the schedule.
For that reason, I'm comfortable splitting the difference between the "Likely" and "Worst Case" scenarios above and, for betting purposes, conservatively projecting MSU at 5 wins, minimum.
As for my actual expectations and record projections, I like them at 6 or 7 wins, with 8 being the ceiling.
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