I'll admit I only watched the first quarter, so maybe this loss is on me, as we stunk as soon as I turned it off.
This was a massive setback and a disappointing result after we played arguably two of our strongest games. I'm not going to get into the details of the game itself, but instead compare how IU and MSU got to this position and where MSU goes from here, both for the remainder of the season and looking ahead.
How both teams got here
Both IU and MSU hired new coaches. IU is coming off a 3-9 season, while MSU finished the 2023 season at 4-8 (including a win over IU).
Both teams had 39 players exit through the portal.
Here's where things start to differentiate. Both teams brought in a QB to be handed the starting role.
IU adds Rourke, the 2022 MAC Player of the Year in 2022. Look at the years 2021-2023; that's three years of starting experience and solid numbers. But this is his last year of eligibility.
MSU adds Chiles, who only had 35 attempts to his name before this year. But including this year, it has 3 years of eligibility.
IU got their guy for this year, while MSU got it's guy for the future.
IU brought in 31(!) transfers. They brought over 13 players from JMU, following their coach. And seven from other Power 5 schools.
Bringing 13 players over from the previous school is a huge move. This means that they know the system and the coach and can easily acclimate to the new school as they already have built relationships.
For 17 of the 31, this is their last year of eligibility.
MSU brought in 24 portal players. Of the 24, only 6 entered the year with one year of eligibility.
Only 3 transfers came from Oregon State. We know he tried to get a couple more. I think there's a few reasons for this. 1. He didn't want to gut his alma mater. 2. HE didn't want to waste time or block younger players at MSU, which would either run them off or delay their growth.
The MSU staff instead opted for players with multiple years remaining who can develop and be part of the rise.
The difference in portal approach is evident on the field. IU had more talent and more experience. They also took more of a "win now" approach to this offseason. And while the season they are experiencing had made it easily worth it, seeing where they are now. They will have to hit the portal hard again to sustain it. Granted, it should be easier to do now that they have a proven season under them and some good recruiting momentum. It's a flywheel I think their coach can keep up with.
MSU, on the other hand, is thinking more long-term. We have 14 players set to leave this offseason. I'd expect another 10-15 players to hit the portal. Not sure how comparable it is, but at Oregon State, Smith lost 10 players in '22, 11 in '23 and 25 before the '24 season. So, let's go with 15 portal departures. In that case, we have ~29 scholarships available.
Where MSU goes from here (Recruiting and Portal)
We only have 15 high school commitments. It's a small class, and the staff is being selective. They aren't going to take bodies to do it. I think the class ends up around 20.
Not counting OSU transfers, 11 of our 24 portal additions are playing or starting, a solid hit rate considering most of the remaining 13 are younger guys and were expected to take this year to develop.
Assuming we take 20 HS recruits, we have room for ~9 portal players
Off the cuff, I could see them bringing in 1 RB to work with Carter and buy younger guys one more year. So this could be a one-year mercenary or proven player that's still young. Add 1 RB.
WR room needs help. We only have Marsh, Glover, and Johnson as experienced players with Foster leaving. We could use immediate contributors. Add 1 WR, maybe 2.
At OL, we lose three starters and one depth piece. The OL is young, so the only addition here would be a plug-and-play depth piece. Add 1 OL.
At DL (including Edge and DT) we lose 5 players. We have a few good young pieces, but need depth. This is a position I can see them adding the best available regardless of class. Add 2 players (1 DT, 1 EDGE).
At LB we only lose Haladay and Turner. With Matthews, Hall, and Snow returning. And young guys like Prezlaff and Pulliman in the wings. They have the option to take best available regardless of class. ADD 1 LB.
At DB, we lose CB Woods and versatile player Grose. We have proven vets like Martinez, Spencer, Tatum, Brantley. We have some young guys as well. This is another spot I expect the staff to look for the best available but they can afford to take a younger player. Add 2 DBs.
The above plan takes 8 or 9 (if they take 2 WRs), and has a mix of positions where they need immediate help, or can bring in good, younger guys.
Fitting the Timeline
Next year, we will have 17 Seniors and 31 Juniors. That's a good-sized senior class, which could grow in the portal, and many key players return. More importantly, 31 juniors is massive. That's 48 upperclassmen (we will call it a wash between players in/out through the portal). We should take a step forward.
If we have a little patience, it's 2026 that we take off. 31 Seniors, led by Chiles. Featuring Marsh. With a veteran O-Line. That's when it gets special.
We just need to hang on until then.
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