CFB Stats and Team Rankings both do a nice job of making stats digestible. Below is a screenshot of MSU and opponents average aggregate and average stats. CBF Stats Link here. Team Rankings here.
This is a follow up to our First 5 Games Recap. We have a sample size of 5 games - one cupcake (PVAM), one monster (OSU), a challenging home game opener (FAU), and two away games against equal opponents (MD and BD). I think that's enough to glean some insight.
Let's look at the Team Statistics.
Offense
Sustaining Drives: Our First-down split is 38 by rushing and 51 through the air. We convert on third down 40% of the time (63rd nationally). And we have a decent Yards Per Play at 5.5 (60th Nationally). Those two stats would indicate we do an ok job moving the ball, but somehow we only average 17 points per game (103 nationally)
The gap between conversions and points is high. Drive-killing penalties, Interceptions (8), and Fumbles (5) are the most significant factors.
Chiles has an INT % of 7.32%, worst in the country.
The next leading factor in my mind is the struggle in the running game (see image below). We are 80th is Yards/Rush. Due to a lack of success here, we have a low rushing attempt/game, only 31/game (102 nationally). And a low Rush Play % at only 49% (90th nationally).
Poor running on 1st and 2nd down means we are behind the chains and in 3rd and long situations. This means we generally have to pass to get the first down. Additionally, even in 3rd and short or manageable, we either don't attempt to run, or the run is stuffed. This combo results in less rushing attempts & success running to gain a first down.
Time of Possession: The above note correlates here. Since we struggle to run and gain first downs, drives stall out. Short drives mean lower time of possession. Granted, our Defense has played solid all year, but it's putting them in a bad spot. The OSU game did a lot of damage to this stat. TOP was pretty even in the FAU. We were +5 minutes vs. MS and -5 minutes vs. BC. Even with OL struggles, we need to find a way to control the clock better.
Redzone Success: We are ranked 115/132 in redzone success at 67%. Again, due in part of lack of success in the run game to get deeper in the redzone and punch in for TDs. We've also had a few TO's in the redzone.
Lean on Kim: This is going to sound cowardly, but we need to take more points when they are available. Kim is a great FG kicker. Besides Oregon, the remaining schedule is full of games that 3 points here and there is the difference. If the offense plays smart (no TOs, sacks, etc.) in the redzone, a FG isn't a bad outcome.
Defense
Run Defense and Yards/Play: Good news, we are doing a solid job stopping the run, only giving up 3.13 yards/rush. As a result, we've seen 13 more first downs gained against us through the air. While Oregon will likely continue that streak, I think this is a positive indicator for future match-ups against Iowa, UM, Illinois, and Rutgers. We give up 4.8 Yards/Play, 34th nationally.
3rd and 4th Down and Red Zone: Bad news, we are middle of the pack nationally in these stats. So even though we stop the run fairly well, teams are still extending drives AND converting int he Redzone.
Sack %: While we are giving up conversions through the air, we are doing a good job getting after the QB. We have a 9.45% Sack %, good for 16th nationally.
Splits: We've played an interesting mix of games; FAU (personnel) and BC (weather) were run-heavy. OSU (game script) ended up fairly balanced, as did MD and PVAM. That said, overall, the teams are running more than passing against MSU, and we've done better stopping the run.
We've played three teams that struggled to throw (FAU, PVAM, and BC) - but are still giving up a high completion percentage at 64% (95th nationally), but we look ok in Yards/Pass (61st Nationally).
It's easier said than done, but our recipe for success is straightforward:
Cut down on the TO's
Get creative in the run game - we need to sustain longer drives and convert in the redzone
The two above points will boost time of possession and give our defense a break.
Continue to focus on stopping the run. Besides Oregon, which is a great passing team, success stopping the run will make the rest of the remaining teams one-dimensional.
Comments