It's finally here. MSU vs UM. A game in which expectations have shifted drastically from preseason to where we are today. Going into the season, I think most fans had tempered expectations; keeping it close and covering the spread would be a moral victory. That would also be a significant improvement from the outcome of the past two years. Ask fans now, and it's win the damn thing. That's where I sit, and for good reason.
Why MSU can pull out the win:
MSU is trending. After two blowout losses to OSU and Oregon, MSU righted the ship against Iowa with a dominant performance in all three phases of the game. It was our best showing from offense, defense, and special teams. Chiles looked composed, the OL and running game were strong, and the defense shut down the Iowa run. Those are also the three keys vs. UM.
UM, on the other hand, is struggling. They are fresh off a loss to Illinois, following a loss at Washington. They didn't look good in the four previous games either. They have three terrible quarterbacks. The UM offense is comparable to Iowa's. They do a decent job running the ball but can't pass. One quarterback can run, but again, he can't throw.
Special Teams:
Punting: There is a massive disparity at Punter. UM's Tommy Doman has 30 punts on the year and averages 42 yards per punt. He has eight punts staying within the 20, and only 7 punts of 50+ yards (23%). He has a long of 58. MSU's Ryan Eckley has 23 punts on the year, with a 48-yard average and a long of 61 (long of 68 in 2023). And has 11 punts of 50 yards+ (36%).
FG Kicking: Both teams have good kickers, but Kim is more proven from distance. His ability to make 40+ yard FGs (15-22 over the last two years. And 8-9 this year) is a huge advantage in the event drives stall near the redzone. This matters considering field position will be at a premium in this game. UM's kicker is 8-9 on the year, with 4 makes of 40+ (including 3 of 50+).
The 6 yards per punt difference adds up. UM averages 7 punts per game. MSU averages 4.6 (not including 0 punts vs Iowa, which I'll say is an anomaly). If we exchange six punts, that's 36 free yards. Plus, we have a 13% higher chance of a 50+ yard punt to flip the field.
This matters because MSU averages 5.7 yards per play and .06 points per yard. UM averages 4.87 yards per play and .01 points per yard. Simply put, we are more efficient. Every yard matters, the shorter the drive, the more points we get. We are likelier to have a long FG attempt throughout the game, while UM might be in a punt situation.
There are also a few trends pointing in MSU's direction:
Since 1969, 48 of the past 54 Paul Bunyan winners have been the team that finishes with more rushing yards.
We are arguably coming off our best rushing performance against an Iowa defense that is great vs. the run.
We are strong vs the run
UM can't pass, so we will sell out on the run and make them one-dimensional
When both teams finish with fewer than ten wins, meaning neither is "great" to "elite", MSU holds the advantage 6-2.
2008: MSU won 35-21.
2009: UM won 29-27.
2010: MSU won 34-17.
2012: MSU won 12-10.
2013: MSU won 29-6.
2014: MSU won 35-11.
2016: UM won 32-23.
2020: MSU won 27-24.
When the spread is within 10 points, meaning it's evenly matched, MSU has beaten UM at a high clip. In this scenario over the last 20 seasons, MSU's outright win record is 8-2.
2008: MSU won 35-21 (Spread: UM -5)
2009: UM won 29-27 (Spread: UM -4)
2010: MSU won 34-17 (Spread: UM -3)
2011: MSU won 28-14 (Spread: UM -4)
2012: MSU won 12-10 (Spread: UM -6)
2013: MSU won 29-6 (Spread: UM -5)
2014: MSU won 35-11 (Spread: UM -3)
2016: UM won 32-23 (Spread: UM -10)
2017: MSU won 14-10 (Spread: UM -6)
2020: MSU won 27-24 (Spread: UM -4)
Let's jump to the match-up courtesy of College Football Insiders
Rounding up, they are projecting a 24 to 23 UM win. So it's tight.
MSU's disadvantages are in Field Position, 3rd/4th down success, and Net Points/Drive on offense. I'm optimistic the Iowa game is a sign of development in those areas. While those points seem to be mismatches favoring UM, we've shown improvement and that will carry over against UM.
On the other hand, the UM offense is what it is, and there isn't much room for improvement. UM does a good job running the ball, but MSU does a good job stopping the run. We have an advantage in passing situations, like we did against Iowa.
Both teams have lousy field position metrics. For MSU, this is a product of a ton of Chile's TOs. Again, UM is what it is here. The ceiling for MSU is much higher if we can protect the ball better and sustain drives. And in what should be a low-scoring game, settling for FGs will make a big difference.
We average 2.5 TO's per game and Chiles has a 5.7% Int Throw %, both worst in the country. If we can buck that trend and only have one TO, we win. Two giveaways and that might be all UM needs to squeak this out.
For what it's worth, if you adjust the settings to make this a natural game location, it has MSU winning by a point.
A few other nuggets:
Strength of Schedule: MSU has had the 6th-hardest schedule in the country, while UM has had the 22nd.
Strength of Record: MSU is ranked 40th in Resume, while UM is ranked 47th.
Team Efficiency: Both teams are right at 60%. MSU has a significantly more efficient Offense, while UM has a slightly more efficient Defense and Special Teams.
My prediction...
MSU has just enough in the run game to set up the play-action for Chiles. A few Chiles keepers early keep the UM edge honest. Staying ahead of the chains, Chiles has a mostly clean game, with one TO early, but an otherwise solid night. Foster and Marsh continue to play well and capitalize on the absence of star corner Will Johnson. While we settle for a few FGs, we are smooth most of the night on offense.
The defense sells out on the run all night. We do give up a few long runs, but get enough stops on 1st and 2nd down to force passing situations, where UM drives stall out. The UM kicker exchanges FGs with Kim for most of the night.
MSU WINS 26-20
What I'm betting:
MSU ML: Took at +160 (currently +140)
MSU Spread: Took it early at MSU +7 (-110) and MSU +7.5 (-112)
MSU First to 20 Points: Used a Fandule 30% Profit Boost making it +202 (originally +180). I like this more than the current ML line of +140.
Parlay: MSU o1.5 TDs (-165) + UM u2.5 TDs (-145) + MSU First to 20 Points (+180) + UM u23.5 points (-150). The Parlay comes to +258 but I'm using a DraftKings Boost making it +323
Considering sprinkle on MSU to win by 1-6 (+475) or 7-12 (+650).
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