MSU vs Purdue - A Chance to Get Back on Track

For the first time in what feels like forever, MSU enters a game with the predictions, analytics, and even Vegas on its side.

Match-Up Preview: Michigan State vs. Purdue

The Michigan State Spartans (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten) welcome the struggling Purdue Boilermakers (1-9, 0-7 Big Ten) to East Lansing in a Friday night matchup between two teams looking to salvage what’s left of their seasons.

While Purdue’s record paints a bleak picture, this game may be closer than it seems at first glance. Both teams have faced similar challenges in Big Ten play, and their performances against shared opponents suggest this could be a competitive battle.

Common Opponents and Big Ten Play Comparison

Both Michigan State and Purdue are winless against their three shared opponents this season, but the margins of defeat tell an interesting story:

• Purdue: -81 total point differential

• Michigan State: -74 total point differential

While MSU has been slightly more competitive, the difference is surprisingly narrow given the disparity in records.

When looking at the broader scope of Big Ten play, the numbers further highlight Purdue’s struggles:

• Purdue: An average margin of defeat of -27 points, including blowout losses of 35, 26, 45, and 39 points in their last four games.

• Michigan State: A slightly better, but still tough, average margin of defeat of -23.6 points, with four losses by 21 points or more.

Both teams have suffered significant defeats, but Purdue’s recent stretch has been brutal, indicating a program struggling to stay competitive as the season winds down. MSU, while not far removed from their own struggles, has at least managed to keep games a touch closer overall.

Keys for Michigan State

1. Establish Early Momentum: MSU needs to pounce early. Get off a strong start and crush any hope Purdue has of hanging. MSU needs to capitalize on this by setting the tone offensively through the run game and Chiles's playmaking ability. And leaning on the run defense

2. Limit Mistakes: This game is a prime opportunity for MSU to play clean football. MSU has struggled with turnovers and costly penalties. Purdue has only forced 6 TO's on Defense. Do not give them cheap points or better field position with stupid TOs. MSU averages 57 penalty yards/game. This is a chance to be on the better side of that number.

3. The Trenches: This is the first game in a while that MSU has a favorable matchup on both sides of the line. While MSU's running game has been a roller coaster, on and off some weeks without rhyme or reason, we have an advantage here. Purdue has had 7 games where they allowed a 70+ rusher. And four games where a player went for 90 or more. I expect KLA and Carter to do damage.

Keys for Purdue

1. Exploit the Secondary: MSU’s pass defense has been inconsistent, and injuries are piling up. Tatum, Spencer, and Brantley are OUT. Armorion Smith and DB Chance Rucker are QUESTIONABLE as well.

2. Stop the Run: If Purdue wants to stay competitive, they’ll need to limit MSU’s success on the ground. Forcing the Spartans into third-and-long situations could tilt the game in their favor.

3. Play for Pride: At 1-9, Purdue has nothing to lose. This could make them a dangerous opponent if they play loose and take risks. Trick plays or aggressive fourth-down calls wouldn’t be surprising.

What’s at Stake

For Michigan State, this game is about keeping bowl eligibility alive. A win sets up a potential must-win finale to finish the season at 6-6 and secure a postseason berth.

For Purdue, pride is on the line. They’re still searching for their first conference win and looking to build any semblance of momentum heading into the offseason.

Prediction

While Purdue’s record suggests they’re overmatched, MSU can’t afford to take this one lightly. The Spartans have shown they can compete when playing a clean game, and Purdue’s inability to consistently finish drives gives MSU the edge.

If MSU executes their game plan and limits self-inflicted mistakes, they should walk away with a crucial victory in their quest for bowl eligibility.

Michigan State 27, Purdue 17

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