MSU heads to BC in week 4, which should be an excellent environment for their signature 'Red Bandana Game'. MSU enters the game 3-0, while BC is 2-1. Kick-off is slated for 8 p.m., and the current line is BC -6.5. ESPN's Match Up Predictor gives BC a 78% to win.
BC is led by Bill O'Brian, a good coach who has turned around the program and culture. Through 3 weeks they've proven to be a tough team, with a signature win vs FSU, and a close loss to a ranked Missouri team last week.
The improvement this season is led by UCF transfer QB Castellanos. He's a true dual-threat quarterback, coming off a season throwing 15 TDs (14 INTs) and rushing for over 1,000 yards and 13 TDs. He's looking better in the new system, with a 9:2 TD:INT ratio through three weeks. BC's passing game is strong; they rank among the nation's leaders in yards/attempt, QBR, and explosiveness.
If Brantley, Spencer, Martinez and Co. can hold their own in coverage and create TO's we will be in good shape. If Castellanos finishes 2 TD, 0 INTs, and 75+ yards rushing we are in trouble.
While their passing game has been successful, the first two weeks they did an exxcellent job on the ground with a RBBC approach, averaging over 200 yards rushing/game. They had less rushing success last week vs Mizzo.
Last week Mizzo did a great job shutting down the RB run, and BC opted to QB run or pass. We need to do the same thing, and have shown flashes we can do well up front. The longer BC stays balanced, and find success with RB runs, the worse off we'll be.
As The Action Network pointed out in this article, BC's weakness is pass defense. They were bad in coverage last year, and that doesn't seem to have changed. BC ranks 103rd in Passing Success Rate and 93rd in Havoc through 3 weeks.
Interestingly BC struggled to stop the run vs Mizzo, allowing 178 yards rushing and 5.8 YPC. MSU hasn't been great running the ball, but if we can find some success on the ground, it will make life easier for Chiles top open it up through the air.
MSU's Core Needs to Make Plays
Chiles has been a rollercoaster. Huge plays followed by massive mistakes. As he gets more experience, I expect his 57% completion percentage to increase. And he needs to improve the TD:INT ratio. The silverlining to me is that he only has 18 carries in 3 games, I expect to see an increase this week over the 6 carries/game average.
Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter have been decent, I think the lack of success is more a reflection of the OL and injuries, but they've still combined for 400 yards.
We are thin at WR, but have made plays the last two weeks. Nick Marsh only has 11 catches but averages 20+ YPC. Foster Jr. has been pretty quite with only 13 catches for 113 yards through 3 weeks. Both should have a plus match up.
The MSU +6.5 is tempting. The below graphic powered by CFB Graphs makes it a bit more interesting. It predicts a 26-22 MSU win.
MSU is ranked 84th in 3rd/4th down success and 100+ for Rush and Drop-Back Success Rate. As we've seen, the offense can be clunky. Having more success on 1st and 2nd downs and getting 3rd down to a more manageable position is critical.
Defensively we actually look ok.
My keys to success:
INTs - we have a H2H match up of TO prone QBs. Winning TO battle wins the game.
Who stops the run - MSU did a good job vs Maryland, our most competant rushing opponent. BC struggled to run vs Mizzo. MSU has been decent running the ball so far. And BC just gave up 178 rushing yards vs Mizzo.
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