Michigan State Basketball: What Lies Ahead for the 2025-2026 Season?

After a refreshing season for Michigan State basketball fans, there’s a mix of unknown and anticipation as we look ahead to the 2025-2026 season. With a mix of returning players and fresh talent, the Spartans are ready to take the next step in the latest MSU chapter. The questions surrounding roster changes and player development are igniting conversation among supporters. Let’s explore what the future holds for Michigan State basketball!

2024-2025 Post Mordum

I love these charts as they show the strengths and weaknesses of the team and players.

MSU was one of the most efficient offensive and defensive teams. On both ends we were strong on the glass, blocked shots and didn't get blocked much. We also were a strong 2P% team on offense and defense. Also positive FT%, Ast Rate, TO Rate. While we didn't make many 3's, our opponents didn't either.

This chart echoes many of the points from the one above.

Offensively, we were efficient, strong on the glass, and got to the line (and made the FT). But we are a horrific 3P%.
Defensively, we were efficient, held teams to a low ePG% and were elite on the glass. We had elite 3P% defense and Block %.

The Good:

Effective FG and True Shooting had a few really efficient players - Jase, Kohler, Carr, Cooper, and Zapala.
Rebounding, AST, TO, and Blocks. Excellent FT%.

Ehh:

We took a lot of "Far 2" and were average in efficiency. Jase, Akins, Tre and Fidler led the volume there.

Bad:

Fears and Tre both in the red for "Close 2". Luckily everyone else was great. While we made our FT's, our FT Rate was low.

Expected Returning Players

Let's start by addressing what we know: Akins (13 PPG, 3.5 REB, 1.5 AST), Fidler (7-3-1), and Zapala (4 PPG - 4 REB) are out of eligibility. Jase (12-3-2) is leaving for the NBA. And Tre (9-2-3.7) and Booker (5-2) hit the portal

So we are losing about 50 points, 17 rebounds, and 8 assists.

Luckily, we have a strong core of returning players. Fears, Carr, Kohler and Cooper are expected to lead this group.

I'm projecting a great starting lineup, but less depth than this past season.

Fears returns as starting PG. He is a DAWG. Fears is tough, never afraid, and plays great defense. Those traits can't be taught.

Fears: Averaged 23 min, 7 points, 5 assists (2 TO), and 2 rebounds. But the shooting numbers weren't great.
He shot 73% on FT, 40% from the field, and 34% from 3. He had a bad eFG%, "Close 2", and 2P%.
His next step is to be more efficient in an expanded role. Getting to 78% FT, 45% FG, and 37% on 3's would be a notable improvement.
He is a floor general and doesn't need to average 15+ PPG to be a stud. He had 12 games of 10 points or more, and another five finishing with 8 or 9 points. With ~5% more shooting efficiency, he could put up a 12 PPG, 7 Assist type season.

Carr returns at the wing, either a big 3 or small 4. He's arguably the best athlete in college sports. Carr essentially doubled his Minutes (11.6 to 20.7), Points (3.1 to 8.1), and Rebounds (1.8 to 3.6). He can take another step next season.

Carr did this with minimal drop off in FG%. He's very efficient, with strong eFG%, TS%, and Close 2. Oh, and he increased his FT% from 56% to 70%.
He is easily my vote for most improved player. At the same time, I think he's just scratching the surface.
The most significant opportunity would be adding a jump shot and a 3-point shot. No one is asking for Steph Curry. But enough to be a threat. He averaged .4 3-point shots per game. I'd like to see that at 1 per game next year. He hit 33% of 3's on low volume; getting to 37% would make teams respect it. In turn, opening the door for a pump fake and drive, or kick out.

Kohler, in one phrase, displayed "flashes of brilliance". He is my runner-up (by a hair) to Carr for most improved. The stats below illustrate why.

Like Carr, he blew by last season's numbers for minutes (9 to 21), points (2 to 7.8), rebounds (2 to 7.5), blocks (.5 to .8).
He also found much more efficiency (FG 43% to 52% and FT 28% to 82%). He finished with a strong TS%, eFG%, and Close 2 %. He added a 3-point shot to the mix, averaging 1.4 attempts per game and making 37%. He finished with eight double-doubles on the year.
He may only play a few more minutes next year, but his rebound rate will increase with Zapala out of the way. With just a slight tick up in 3-point volume, he will be a walking double-double.

Cooper - In one word, reliable. He's taken a step each season. Going from walk-on to dependable big. His upside is limited, mainly by lack of offense.

He's still managed a healthy 60% FG% and 75% FT, which led to a solid eFG%, True Shoot %, and "Close 2%".
He finished with a 5-point, 5-reb season. That's a great floor. I don't think it's in him to stretch the floor, and he doesn't have to. If he can add back-to-the-basket moves to make the "close 2" a touch more efficient, he could get to 7-8 points easily. And with Zapala gone, the minutes will be there for increased rebounding. He could flirt with a double-double a handful of games next year.

Development Check List

Player development is vital in college basketball, especially during the offseason. Returning players will be focusing on specific skills to elevate their game.

After finishing 300+ in the country in 3P% and 3P-Rate, that's the number one area I'd like to see improved, be it with returning players or portal additions.

Fears - Shooting is the primary weakness. We will take any lift, be it "Far 2" or 3P%
Carr - Same as above, any outside game or jump shot would be a massive step.
Kohler - He flashed with a limited 3-point volume. If the Kohler-bear can be a semi-reliable 3-point threat, with an increased 3-rate, the offense will take a nice step forward and help spacing.
Cooper - Instead of the cleanup guy, he needs to be able to score on his own with back to the basket.

Who Fills the Shoes of Departing Players?

The departures of leaders like Akins, Tre and Jase create a huge hole for the Guard positions. And the departure of last year's steady portal additions, Fidler and Zapala, presents opportunities for younger guys. Over 300 attempted 3's will be available, along with 600 2's. So there's a LOT of volume to pick up. Fears, Carr, Cooper and Kohler will eat into that. But we need reinforcements.

There are a few younger players on the roster, and incoming freshmen ready to step in.

Kur Teng

Scott

Ward

Jesse McColluch

Portal Wish List

Back Up PG: Fears is the clear starter. And with his medical RS, he is only going into his Sophomore year. It will be hard to find a young player willing to split time for more than a year. I think the route would be to find a veteran and a one-year rental-type player. With Fears being a more traditional ball handler, I'd like to see us get someone that can shoot.
Starting SG: With the departure of Akins, Jase and Tre, it's essential we pick up the best SG available. It doesn't matter the eligibility. Kur Teng is the only other SG on the roster. So we should bring someone in to take most of the minutes, ~25. And Kur is hopefully ready for the rest. This guy needs to be a sniper.
Starting Wing: Kohler and Carr will play most minutes at the 4, with Ward as backup. Kohler and Ward can kick to the 5 and split minutes with Cooper and McColluch. Carr is able to kick to the 3. But we need a starting Wing, ideally who can shoot the 3.

Expectations for the Team and The Road Ahead

Heading into the 2025-2026 season, expectations will be high for Michigan State. The Big Ten is known for its competitiveness, demanding that every team be at its best. However, with a mix of returning talent, promising new recruits, and a few portal adds, the Spartans are positioned for success.

Fans should anticipate a team that embodies resilience and determination, often the hallmarks of Michigan State basketball. The coupling of skill development, athleticism, and expert coaching can pave the way for a strong showing—whether in pursuit of the Big Ten title or a deep run in March Madness.

While hope and excitement are high, it is also crucial to recognize that chemistry on the court will take time to develop. Finding the right rhythm with new teammates is essential, so patience will be key as the Spartans learn to work cohesively.