We will never know what would have happened if Mel didn't jerkoff on a phone call. But my guess in that alternate reality is that he is still the coach. They probably win 2+ more games last year. The Mel hot seat would be getting a little warm. With this season flirting with 6-7 wins with Katin Houser or Sam Levitt trotting out at QB, and an underwhelming coaching staff.
But one thing was clear: Mel was recruiting at a pretty high level and landed some big fish. Fortunately, the Mel shit show of all-flash and less substance is over. And with the coaching change, expected attrition was bound to happen. It was just a matter of who would leave and who would stay. And now we will never see how some of Mel's big fish develop. Meanwhile, much of the fat Mel brought in has been trimmed, quickly. Let's break down Mel's results.
2021 - Mel came in at the worst possible time. Dantonio left abruptly, leaving MAC level roster. Mel didn't have much time to build a HS class from scratch. I'm willing to give a hall pass on the HS class grade, ranked ~45 class by most sites. Knowing he needed talent ASAP, he hit the portal HARD..
The Good (2/18 Players)
HS: Keon Coleman, Derrick Harmon.
Portal: Kenneth Walker
Ehhh (4/18 Players)
HS: Ethan Boyd, Geno VanDeMark, Brandon Baldwin, Chuck Brantey.
Portal: Drew Jordan, Jarrett Horst, Chester Kimbrough, Ben VanSumeren, Khary Crump, Marqui Lowery Jr., Maliq Carr, Ronald Williams all chipped in.
The Ugly
HS: Literally everyone else, so 12/18 players never cracked the 2-deep. Many transferred out.
By The Numbers
18 HS Signed - Only 6 stayed at MSU or had a successful career elsewhere. Again, hall pass here for him being in a tough spot.
13 Portal Players - 10 actually contributed at MSU to various levels. Kenneth Walker is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this class.
Besides K9, there's a good chance Keon Coleman and Derrick Harmon are the only players to receive conference-level awards, let alone get drafted. But neither will graduate from MSU.
2022 - On paper, Mel delivered. This HS class ranked 26, and the transfer class ranked 21. It's littered with talented players, a handful of which will be starting, or at least in the 2-deep this year. But as I alluded to in the intro, a lot of the recruiting site star power is no longer with the program.
The Good. 5/23 HS recruits are projecting to be good or better at the college level. 3/9 Portal players were above-average starters.
HS: Germie Bernard (Transferred to Washington), Jaden Mangham, Dillon Tatum, Jaron Glover (I'll be generous), Malik Spencer
Portal: Jacoby Windmon (started when healthy), Khris Bogle (being generous to place in "good" but he's the starting DE this year), Aaron Brule (started at LB last year).
Ehhh. 7/23 HS recruits project to be capable starters in college. 4/9 portal players contributed in part-time roles.
HS: Ashton Lepo (set back by injuries so far, but still has potential), Tyrell Henry (transferred to Wisco), James Schott (competing at DE this year), Caleb Coley (competing at CB this year), Michael Masunas (competing at TE this year), Gavin Broscious (competing at guard this year), Kristian Phillips (competing at guard this year)
Portal: Jalen Berger (chipped in at RB the last two years), Ameer Speed (started 1 year at CB), Daniel Barker (split reps at TE for one year), Ken Talley (competing at DE this year).
The Ugly
HS: 11 players didn't pan out.
By The Numbers
23 HS Signed - Only 6 stayed at MSU or had a successful career elsewhere. Again, hall pass here for him being in a tough spot.
9 Portal Players - When it's said and done, 7-8 will have contributed at various levels, mostly just as capable starters, but none at the level to get BigTen team recognition.
2023 - "holy shit, we might have something here" was what the collective fan base was thinking as more 4* rolled in. And on paper, stacking this class on top of 2022 looked to be setting the program up for future success. For one reason or another, it's also the biggest shit show of a class. Here we go...
The Good (dare I say great for a few). 6/16 HS recruits figure to start at some point in their careers.
HS: Jordan Hall (Next MSU stud LB), Jalen Thompson (future cornerstone of the DL), Brennan Parachek (TE2 this year), Cole Dellinger (in the 2-deep on OL), Chance Rucker (starting CB), Aziah Johnson (working his way up the WR depth chart)
Portal: Jonathan Kim (Starting K), Nathan Carter (RB1)
Ehhh. Ramil is young, he could be a starting Tackle in the coming years and work his way into the "good" category.
HS: Stanton Ramil (coming off a major injury, but has great potential). 3 of the top-rated recruits already hit the portal - Bai Jobe, Andrew Depaepe, and Sam Leavitt. It will be interesting to see how their careers pan out.
Portal: Alante Brown (WR4), Jaren Mangham (RB3), Aaron Alexander (LB5), Tyneil Hopper (TE depth), Semar Melvin (Secondary Depth), Ademola Faleye (TE Depth)
The Ugly
HS - Only 7/16 players figure to play a role of any sort at MSU, many have left already.
Portal: Many non-factor players were brought in. Tucker brought in four players to fill out the DL: Jalen Sami, Tunmise Adeleye, Dre Butler, and Jarrett Jackson. All were busts. Jaylan Franklin didn't contribute at TE.
By The Numbers
HS: 16 players signed. Eight have already transferred out. Those remaining seem to be pretty good. A few will eventually get All-Conference recognition.
Portal: 15 Players signed. 2 have been good (All-Conference level), 6 are ~3 in the depth chart at their respective positions, and 5 didn't do anything.
Mel clearly had some great recruits, but his hit-rate was pretty low, with a ton of players failing to crack the 2-deep by their 2nd or 3rd year. And when he went to the portal, he only found one star and a handful of decent starters, but he swung and missed a lot. Mel took a lot of fliers in the portal on players with good measurables, but not much production. This killed depth.
How does Mel's Philosophy compare to the Smiths?
Mel was very focused on height and weight requirements by position. For example, he didn't allow WR under 6-foot, D-line under 6-2, O-line under 6-3. Mel's theory was that if you start taking undersized exceptions, you end up with a program full of exceptions. And that when you look at the Top 10 programs, which he had experience working at (OSU, Bama, Georgia), you see the size of position groups and how they physically dominate the opposing team. Turns out MSU can't recruit as well as those teams, so exceptions need to be made. Smith is way less focused on height and weight criteria by position. The WR transfer target is a perfect example. And Smith had a ton of success at OSU with smaller offensive weapons.
Mel tried to take a national approach to recruiting and ignored MI and OH. Smith is more in the Dantonio mold of staying regional and emphasizing Michigan. But due to his (and the staff's) history with the West Coast, he will have connections there for the next few years. 2025 QB commit Leo Hannan from California is a good example.
The biggest difference I see is the approach to the portal:
One thing that's clear with the new regime, when they get a portal player, they are plug-and-play starters. He had a leg up on transfers and bringing guys over from OSU like Chiles (QB1), Velling (TE1) and Miller (C1). But if you look at the non-OSU transfers, you see proven and experienced players coming in and filling gaps. Matthews and and Turner are immediate in the 2-deep at LB which had no depth. Even before our starting DTs left he grabbed Douse for depth. But as a response to Harmon and Burrow leaving, he backfills with Lane. Jobe and Depaepe weren't where they needed to be at DE this year, so he grabbed Dunnigan, who has experience, and a project in Anthony Jones, who fits their unique rush-end role. He wasn't satisfied with Berger as RB2 and gets a 1k rusher in Kay'ron Lynch-Adams. They needed an experienced QB2, he grabs Schuster who holds all of the records at N.D. State. Smith hasn't brought in a single transfer without a role in mind. There are no wasted scholarships. This is refreshing to see. And he's not done yet; by my count, we have about 7 open scholarship spots. I expect 1-2 additions at WR, 1-2 at DT, 1 at DE, and 2 in the secondary (likely CB).
Comments