Game Info:
🗓 Tuesday, Nov. 26
⏰ 6:00 PM ET
📍 Maui, Hawaii
📺 ESPN
Setting the Stage
Michigan State takes on Memphis in the second round of the Maui Invitational, with the winner advancing to the championship game and likely facing UNC or Auburn. Both teams enter with momentum, but their paths to this matchup were very different:
MSU: The Spartans handled Colorado with relative ease, showcasing depth and balance while staying in control for most of the game.
Memphis: The Tigers pulled off a gritty, emotional upset over defending champion UConn, proving they’re a dangerous team when firing on all cylinders.
The line opened with Memphis as a slight favorite, but it has since swung to MSU -1.5, and ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Spartans a 54% chance to win.
Michigan State’s First Round Recap
MSU’s victory over Colorado highlighted their versatility and team-oriented approach:
Depth: 10 players saw at least 14 minutes, with 8 players scoring six or more points.
Rebounding Prowess: 4 players grabbed six or more rebounds, with Zapala leading the charge with 8 boards (5 offensive) and 7 points in his best game of the year.
Jace Richardson: The freshman shined, shooting 6-8 from the field for 13 points and adding valuable energy on both ends.
The one blemish? It's now the usual. Perimeter shooting. MSU went a woeful 2-for-21 from three, something that must improve against Memphis’ ball pressure.
Scouting Memphis
Memphis thrives on a guard-led offense and aggressive defensive pressure. They aim to force turnovers and dominate in transition but have vulnerabilities the Spartans can exploit.
Memphis Takeaways and MSU Keys:
Guard-Driven Play: Memphis is led by a trio of standout guards, but Michigan State has strong defensive counters in Tre Holloman and Jaden Akins, who can disrupt the Tigers’ flow. Coen Carr could also provide help against the third guard with his size and athleticism.
Decent Bigs, Limited Defense: Memphis’ big men are serviceable offensively but lack a strong defensive presence. This could play into MSU’s strength, as the Spartans rank 29th nationally in converting 64.7% of their chances at the rim (per Hoop-Math). Look for Zapala to stay hot and Kohler to show his touch inside.
Short Rotation: Memphis plays just eight deep, with most minutes going to the starting five. This leaves them vulnerable to MSU’s depth and ability to wear down opponents.
Fix the Perimeter Shooting: MSU’s cold night from three (2-for-21) against Colorado can’t be repeated. Improved shooting will open up driving lanes and keep Memphis’ defense honest.
Prediction
This matchup hinges on Michigan State’s ability to stay composed against Memphis’ pressure and exploit their depth advantage. If the Spartans can improve their outside shooting and control the paint, they have the tools to pull away late.
Prediction: Michigan State 75, Memphis 70
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