If there's one thing that can change the momentum and trajectory of a program, it's pulling off an upset. If there's one thing Mel did right in year 1 and 2, it was making a splash to change the team's perception. In the shortened 2020 Covid season, that included upset at UM and home over a ranked Northwestern team. In the following 2021 season, they ripped off 10 wins, including at Miami early in the year, home vs UM, and home vs Penn State.
While Coach Smith and the team pulled off a nice win at home against Iowa, they lost a lot of goodwill with the loss to UM. This week, we have the hottest team in the country in Indiana for a home game. IU has a new coach and is the darling of the country with a 7-0 record.
If this team wants to prove it has a backbone and Coach Smith wants to get things moving again, there is no better opportunity than playing spoiler now.
Here's why I think MSU can pull it off - MSU advantages
While IU is a perfect 7-0, they have the 106th-rated Strength of Schedule, while MSU has had the 9th-hardest schedule. MSU would likely be 7-0 or 6-1 with the same schedule.
IU had a great win over Nebraska, but generally haven't been tested and have only played 2 away games. I still don't think we know what they are.
MSU, on the other hand, has been tested. We've been in major battles. We know exactly what works, what doesn't, and what our strengths and weaknesses are.
Chiles: He has to protect the football. He's now gone 4 weeks in a row with only one TO/game. That has to continue. He's also had back-to-back weeks with completion percentage over 70%, after failing to hit that mark the first 6 weeks. We are seeing improvement.
Hot Running Game: Against Iowas, KLA went for over 80 yards. Against UM, Carter put up 115.
In BigTen games, the leading opponent rusher has gone for 48 (UCLA), 111 (Maryland), 35 (Northwestern), 24 (Nebraska), and 104 (Washington). While teams have had to go away from the run due to game script, it's clear 100 yard games are possible.
Why this match up is tough for MSU
IUs pass rush is very strong: They have 24 sacks on the year and have forced 8 INTs.
Keys to the Game & Match Up to Watch
IU QB Situation: Starter Kurtis Rourke is injured, but expected to be return for this game. So we either get a dinged up Rourke. Or backup Tayven Jackson
Jackson is playing well and has some mobility to him, but he's not the same as Rourke. In his first start last week vs. Washington he went 11/19 f(58%) for 124, 1 TD and 1 INT. He also ran 6 times for 17 yards and a TD.
Stopping the IU Run: IU has 1,600 yards on the ground, with a 5.0 average. They rush for 200 yards per game, and have 30 rushing TDs. It's been a major strength. Again, this is against weak competition. We've been great at stopping the run the last two weeks.
UM running backs were limited to 42 yards on 22 carries (1.9 YPC). With a long of 11.
Iowa's stud RB Kaleb Johnson went 14-98. It looks good on paper. BUT 75 came on one carry. Otherwise, he went 13-23 (1.76 YPC).
I love the match-up predictor provided by College Football Insiders but with IUs schedule, I don't think there's a whole lot to learn from this. We already know what we need to do to win most games.
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