Every year ESPN releases their SP+ projections for each college football team. This is based on Returning production (accounting for transfers in & out and other attrition), Recent Recruiting, and Recent History. It's weighted significantly towards Returning Production, a chunk towards Recruiting, and a sliver to Recent History.
It's not surprising to see the teams at the top - Georgia, Bama, Michigan, Ohio State, etc. But out of 134 teams, MSU is sitting at 82. We are sandwiched between the UVA, Wake Forest, Houston, Texas State, Pitt, Coastal Carolina, Indiana, Toledo and the Wyoming's of the world.
The Big10 is rated as the second-highest Conference, behind the SEC. The Big10 isn't among the top 3 conferences when looking at Offense only, but is number one for Defense.
Post-Spring SP+ Rankings
TEAM | SP+ | OFF. SP+ | DEF. SP+ | ST SP+ |
82. Michigan St. | -4.9 | 15.4 (125) | 20.4 (30) | 0.6 (16) |
Post-Spring Returning Production Rankings:
TEAM | RET PROD | OFF (RK) | DEF (RK) |
72. Michigan St | 61% | 46% (109) | 75% (19) |
The Average returning production by conference Big Ten (62.8%)
We are right at average here. But below I'll tell you why I think this is selling us short.
My thoughts on this:
Special Teams is ranked highly, due to returning Kicker and Punter. This checks out.
Defense SP+ (30th overall), which is heavily weighted towards Returning production (75% returning and 19th overall in returning), is solid.
Our defense was among the worst in the country by many metrics last season. Finishing middle of the pack in the Big10, and near the Top 30, let alone the Top 50, will mean we are a much better team.
Offense is trickier. MSU is ranked 125th in SP+, heavily weighted by only 46% of returning production (ranking 109/134).
First, the biggest reason for MSU's low ranking is the departure of 3 OL starters. This is followed by Carr leaving at TE, some RB reps and the exodus in the QB room.
This is offset by Velling at TE and adding a portal RB. But we haven't dont much to backfill the OL room. So that is the biggest gap.
But I want to focus on QB. My guess is that the quarterback carries a lot of weight in this metric. Consider the snap volume and yards.
MSU QBs in 2023 combined for 220 completions on 380 attempts (58% comp %), 2,400 yards (6.3 average), 14 TD to 13 INTs, and 25 sacks. BAD.
This metric is replacing that bad production with Chiles. Reminder, Chiles will be starting his first full season this year after getting minimal reps at OSU last year behind DJU. Last year, he passed 24/35 (68%), 300 yards (8.8 average) and 4-0 TD-INT. 4 sacks. He also rushed for 79 yards and 3 TDs. So his great numbers on low volume are just a sliver of our shit production last year.
A better reflection of potential production is DJU's last two years at OSU. He averaged 205 completions on 340 attempts (60%), 2,580 yards, 21 TDs, and 7 INTs. That's SIGNIFICANTLY better than what MSU put up. And while it's likely the ceiling for Chiles as a Sophomore this year, it's a good benchmark as it was under the current coaching staff.
I also bring DJU up as he landed at Florida State. FSU has a major edge in recent results and recent recruiting, so we can't compare the SP+ overall. But we can look at returning production on offense. FSU is replacing Jordan Travis (a school legend) with DJU. FSU is ranked 56% in returning production, which is 87th overall.
The point is that while MSU is ranked 125th in offensive returning production, and I think we can use DJU at FSU as directional guidance to say we could really be in the 80-100 range.
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