MSU is -11 in our week 1 match-up against the FAU Owls on 8/31. Here’s why I’m jumping on this line early.
What we know about FAU
ESPN’s SP+ (Metric for Returning Production, Recent Recruiting, and Recent History)
Owls are 115/133. With 124th Offense and 78th Defense.
Returning Production: 43% overall. 36% Offense (122/133) and 53% Defense (105/133)
Key Players
Cameron Fancher transfers in from Marshall. He started 10 games last year, and a few the previous season. Coming off a 2,000 passing-yard season, 65% comp, and 11 TDs. He also rushed for 270 yards and 4 TDs.
Lajohntay Wester returns for his SR year. Posted an excellent 100-1100-8 line. Led team in receiving 7/12 games. 8 games of 86+ REC Yards
Tony Johnson (Jr) – 37-411-4 last year
Darius McClendon is a SR CB who leads the secondary, with 60 tackles last year. Daedae Hill is another SR with back-to-back 37+ tackle seasons.
At LB, Jarrett Jerrels leads the way (35 tackles).
Off-Season Losses: Graduated top RB (led team in rushing 9/12 games), 2 LBs, top DB, top DT, #3 CB, running QB Michael Johnson, and starting QB Daniel Richardson (2k yards. 65%. 13:10), LB Jaylen Wester (JR) – back-to-back 50+ tackles
Portal In – Added 20 players. Average Portal Player Ranking of 85.5. For comparison, MSU added 24 players, with an average of 87.5.
Two position groups stand out
DT/Edge – 7
WR – 6
How FAU did last season
Went 4-8 last year (3-5 in conference)
Lost close (under 7 points) to Ohio, Illinois, UAB and Rice
Lost 14+ to Clemson, USTA, East Carolina, and Tulane
Strength of Record – 106/133
Strength of Schedule – 111/133
PPG O 24.8 (89/133)
PPG D 25.5 (58/133)
Offensively in the bottom 3rd of AAC in Total Yards, Passing Yards and Rushing Yards
Defensively was in the middle of the pack in Yards given up. Bottom 3rd in Passing Yards Allowed. Top 3rd in Rushing Yards Allowed.
What this means for MSU Week 1
FAU Offense – Good news for MSU: the FAU’s offense was one of the worst in the country and AAC conference, despite one of the easiest schedules in the country. They only have 36% of offense returning. And will be featuring a new QB and RB.
FAU Defense - Bad news for MSU, 56% of production returns for FAU defense. The good news is that group was one of the worst in the country, and their conference, despite one of the easiest schedules in the country.
Why MSU Covers -11
We have significantly better players, top to bottom. ESPN SP+ confirms this. We also have more production returning (and through addition) than they do.
We have a new staff and scheme. FAU will have to scout Oregon State to get a sense of what we will do. But 90% of the players will be different.
It's at home, ushering in a new era. Fans will be excited, vibes will be high. Coach Smith will want to put on a show.
While both teams have new QBs, ours has experience in the system.
We have better RBs, and can control temp and clock.
FAU has a decent QB, but only one offensive weapon in WR Wester. MSU went heavy in the portal, adding to the DB room. Including additions at CB in Woods, Cavazos, and Hughes. As well as adding Safety Martinez. MSU is in a much better position to handle a dynamic WR this year compared to last year.
I expect some jitters and time to warm up in the first half. And I wouldn't be shocked to see us only up 7, especially if FAU receives the opening kick. In the second half, I expect our size, talent, and depth to be superior as we cruise to an 11-14-point victory.
On that note, I don't hate a 1st Half Under depending on the line.
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