Breaking Down the Impact of MSU's Newest Addition: Szymon Zapala at Center

MSU fans have been begging Izzo to bring in a Center all offseason. Well, we got our man, albeit not what I expected. Szymon Zapala transferred in from Long Beach State. He has one year of eligibility remaining.

Zapala stands 7-0 / 240, a good size for the BigTen. But a quick glimpse at the highlights doesn't show a ton of physicality or rim protection (only .8 blocks per game). Two things that have lacked on recent MSU teams. But he does check a few boxes for MSU.

Zapala's Basic Numbers

• In 2023 he averaged almost 10 PPG and 5.6 rebounds.

  • 12 games with 10+ pts. Had a high of 24 pts.

  • 15 games with 5+ rebs. High of 14 rebs.

• He hit those numbers despite a relatively low 16.8 minutes a game.
  

• He made 24 starts in 35 games last year.

• He had a solid a .629% FG%.

• He also had a .655 FT% on just over 3 attempts per game.

• I don't like the Assist (.3) to TO (1.4) ratio.

  • 21 games with 0 assists
    

Zapala's Advanced Metrics (See below on how this compares to the returning bigs, as well as Mady for reference)

• PER - 27.8 (Significantly higher than the returning Centers)

• True Shooting - .645% (Significantly higher than the returning Centers)

• eFG% - .634% (Significantly higher than the returning Centers)

• FT Attempt Rate - .531%

• TRB% - 19% (Higher than the returning Centers)

• USAGE - 26.6% (Significantly higher than the returning Centers)

Zapala Against Strong Competition (their conference and overall schedule was a joke)

• @ Dayton he put up 9 points and 10 rebounds.

• vs. Houston in the NCAAT he had 6 points and 3 rebounds in 18 minutes

What to Expect

• Zapala is moving up levels in terms of competition. I don't expect him to log the level of minutes or find the same degree of efficiency.

• If we say his MSU numbers are 80% of what he did last year, you're looking at 10 minutes a night, 7 points, and 4 rebounds.

• With regression, his efficiency numbers are around the same as the current roster. Does he raise the team ceiling? No. Does he raise the floor? It's possible.

• I see this as a depth move. With Cooper and Kohler getting the majority of the Center minutes. Zapala gives them a different look. He's taller than Mady and Kohler. He's better offensively than Cooper and Mady. And he only has a year left. So he comes in as C3. It helps out and doesn't really get in the way of Cooper and Kohler's eligibility and minutes. Zapala is essentially replacing Mady's role down the stretch. All this to say Izzo is betting on the current roster. And time will tell if this was a good bet.

This is my guess for rotational minutes: